ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC FACTORS ON THE PENSION SYSTEM OF KAZAKHSTAN
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.52123/1994-2370-2025-1536Keywords:
pension system, demographic factors, development trends, forecasting, development scenarios, financial stability, social justiceAbstract
This article presents the results of studies of the influence of demographic and economic factors on the pension system of Kazakhstan. At the same time, the main trends and problems of development of the national pension system are considered, and an analysis of its financial stability and social justice provided by it is conducted. To analyze the demographic and economic factors influencing the domestic pension system, the methods of comparative, correlation-regression analysis, as well as the modeling method are used. To implement these methods, computer programs Microsoft Excel, SPSS and AnyLogic were used. The article analyzes the influence of demographic and economic factors on the pension system of the Republic of Kazakhstan. In addition, the results of modeling and forecasting of pension payments in Kazakhstan under various scenarios of development of the demographic and economic situation are presented. Based on the data obtained, the corresponding benchmarks were determined and practical recommendations were formulated. The results of the studies are characterized by a certain scientific and practical significance, contribute to the expansion of knowledge about the domestic pension system. They contain useful information for the development of appropriate strategies and measures to improve pension provision in Kazakhstan, taking into account the best international experience.
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Lee, R., Reinsdorf, M. How does population aging affect the macroeconomy? [Теxt] // NBER Macroeconomics Annual. – 2020. – № 35(1). – Р. 1–50.
Holzmann, R., Alonso-Garcia, J. & Labit-Hardy, H. NDC schemes and the labor market : Issues and options [Теxt] // Progress and challenges of nonfinancial defined contribution pension schemes. – 2019. – № 1(1). – Р. 377–410.
Doctrinal, L. Left partisan politics and pension privatisation at the crossroads of political legacy and contemporary politics (1980–2017) [Теxt] // Social Policy & Administration. – 2023. – № 57(1). – Р. 23–45.
Frumina, S. V. Demograficheskiye faktory i ikh vliyaniye na razvitiye pensionnoy sistemy Rossii [Demographic factors and their impact on the development of pension system in Russia] [Tekst] // Uspekhi gerontologii. – 2018. – № 31(3). – Р. 419–426.
Babyshev, V. YU. Vliyaniye demograficheskogo stareniya na pensionnyye sistemy [The impact of demographic aging on the pension systems] [Tekst] // Uspekhi gerontologii. – 2021. – № 34(5). – P. 861–869.
Prettner, K., Prskawetz, A. Demographic change in models of endogenous economic growth : A survey [Теxt] // Central European Journal of Operations Research. – 2019. – № 18(4). – Р. 593–608.
Sanchez-Romero, M., Abio, G. & Patxot, C. Contribution to the public pension system and fertility : A unified economic-demographic model of endogenous fertility and intergenerational transfers with policy simulations for Spain and Germany [Теxt] // Journal of Population Economics. – 2019. – № 32(4). – Р. 1235–1278.
Barr, N., Diamond, P. Reforming pensions : Principles, analytical errors and policy directions [Теxt] // International Social Security Review. – 2018. – № 71(2). – Р. 3–36.
Chlon-Dominczak, A., Strzelecki, P. The minimum pension as an instrument of poverty protection in the defined contribution pension system – an example of Poland [Теxt] // Journal of Pension Economics and Finance. – 2018. – № 17(3). – Р. 419–436.
Lee, R., Mason, A. Cost of aging [Теxt] // Finance & Development. – 2017. – № 54(1). – Р. 7–9.
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