GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT AS AN INDICATOR OF FINANCIAL STABILITY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT AMID ECONOMIC MODERNIZATION: THE CASE OF THE KARAGANDA REGION

Ainura Омарова; Aizhan Iskakova; Laura Nicola-Gavrilla; Baldyrgan Jazykbayaeva

doi:10.52123/1994-2370-2025-1665

Authors

Ainura Омарова Karaganda Buketov University
Aizhan Iskakova
Laura Nicola-Gavrilla
Baldyrgan Jazykbayaeva

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52123/1994-2370-2025-1665

Keywords:

modernization, financial stability, strategic management, regional economy, gross regional product, forecasting.

Abstract

In the context of global economic instability and the modernization transformations of Kazakhstan’s economy, ensuring the financial stability of regions has become a key factor for sustainable development. The Karaganda region, being a major industrial center, makes a significant contribution to the formation of the Gross Regional Product (GRP); however, it faces challenges such as sectoral dependency, limited diversification, and the need for infrastructure modernization. This underscores the importance of forecasting GRP dynamics and developing measures to strengthen financial stability.The aim of the study is to develop a methodological approach to assessing and forecasting the financial stability of regional development under the conditions of economic modernization, using the Karaganda region as a case study, and to formulate practical recommendations. To achieve this goal, methods of analysis and synthesis, comparative and structural analysis, dynamic analysis of socio-economic indicators, as well as econometric modeling methods for GRP forecasting were applied.Based on data from 2010–2024, a linear trend model of GRP dynamics was constructed, and forecasting for 2025–2027 was performed, revealing a stable positive trend even under a pessimistic scenario. An increase in the confidence interval was identified with the extension of the forecast horizon.The obtained results can be used by government authorities to adjust regional development and investment strategies, confirming the possibility of enhancing the region’s financial stability through diversification, investment, and improved management practices.

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